Office of Public Sector Information

Posted by: Nicholas Verge, Earthscience Technologies / European Storm forecast Experiment

Public Sector Information Holder: United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)

Information Asset:Output from UKMO numerical weather prediction models

The problem

Output form the numerical global weather prediction models run by the UKMO is currently only provided for external use on a commercial basis (acedemic research excepted). Currently, anyone requiring comprehensive NWP model output for Europe and who cannot afford commercial prioducts, is limited to using the output of the Global Forecasting System run by NOAA in the USA. of a coarser resolution and overall, somewhat less accurate. Becasue of the inherrant unpredictablity of the atmosphere reliance on a single NWP model is not recommended. Instead the ouput from as many NWP models as can be accessed should be considered. Currently the ones developed for forecasting the weather over the UK are effectively off-limits to the public.

My ideal solution

The ideal solution would be for the UKMO to realease all fields, at full temporal and spatial resolution, output from its NWP models as the output is generated, ie without delay. Data should be provided in standard meteorological file formats (GriB2 and/or netCDF) and uploaded to an FTP server for public access.

Output from the following models is requested: the Unified Global Model, regional models including and not limited to the North Atalntic and European Model. Mesoscale models including and not limited to the UK Mesoscale Model.

Model output should be provided for free, and without restriction on how the model ouput may be used redistributed or commercialised.

What I would do

Making such data avilable would allow:

In general....

• Creation of websites displaying the model output in map and other graphical forms.
• Higher level products including and not limited to specialist forecasts for different actrivities and industries.

With respect to the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX*)...

If made available the European Storm Forecast Experiment would use output from these models as the basis of the daily forecasts by its expert storm forecasters of the expected occurence of thunderstorms and associated severe weather (tornadoes, large hail damaging straightline winds and high precipitation) from these across the UK and Europe. With the availability of more-accurate and higher spatial resolution model output, ESTOFEX would be able to make more-detailed and accurate forecasts than at present and issue in addition, severe weather watches and warnings as is currently done in the USA.

*ESTOFEX is a scientific exxercise and a non-commercial group of made up of volunteers.